The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to make several cuts to the base interest rate in 2026. The move could reduce the cost of your mortgage. Read on to find out what’s predicted and how it could affect you.
Following a period of high inflation, the BoE increased the base interest rate between December 2021 and July 2023. As inflation stabilised, the central bank has announced several cuts, taking it from 5.25% in July 2024 to 4% in October 2025.
With households and businesses facing financial pressure, the bank has faced calls to make further cuts. However, the inflation rate stubbornly remains above the BoE’s 2% target.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee assesses numerous factors when deciding what to do, from wage growth to GDP, and has said a cautious approach is needed.
In a September 2025 statement, the BoE said: ”If the economic situation remains stable, we should be able to reduce interest rates further. But we can’t say precisely when or by how much.
“That depends on how things evolve. So, we will continue to monitor developments in the UK and internationally, and will take a gradual, careful approach to interest rate reductions so inflation remains low and stable.”
Economists expect the base rate to fall to 3.5% in the first half of 2026
It’s impossible to know exactly what’s around the corner for the base interest rate. However, there are expectations that there will be two cuts in the first half of 2026.
Data from a Reuters poll published in October 2025 found that half of economists expect a cut by March 2026, and 60% believe there will be one in the second quarter of the year. It’s expected to fall to 3.5% by June 2026.
Some economists are looking even further ahead.
An October 2025 article in This is Money states that several financial services firms, including HSBC and UBS, anticipate that interest rates will fall to 3% by the end of 2026.
These predictions are aligned with inflation forecasts. According to data from the Office for National Statistics released in October 2025, in the 12 months to September 2025, the inflation rate was 3.8%.
The rate of inflation is expected to slide to 2.3% by the end of 2026.
Cuts to the base interest rate could be welcomed by variable-rate mortgage holders
What do these predictions mean for your mortgage and repayments? That depends on the type of mortgage you have.
If you have a variable- or tracker-rate mortgage, the interest rate you pay can change. Often, it will rise and fall in line with the decisions the BoE makes. So, the potential cuts could be good news for you and could mean your repayments will fall in 2026.
To put what a cut means into perspective, if you have a £250,000 repayment mortgage with a 20-year term, your monthly repayment would be £1,514 if the interest rate were 4%.
If the interest rate fell to 3%, your repayment would decrease to £1,386, so you’d have an extra £155 in your pocket each month.
If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rate you pay is fixed for a defined period, even if the BoE changes the base rate. So, you wouldn’t immediately benefit from an interest rate cut.
When your mortgage deal ends, you may find that the interest rate you’re offered when taking out a new deal is more competitive than your previous one.
Get in touch
If you have questions about your existing mortgage or you’re ready to look for a new deal, our mortgage advisers are here to help. We can explain and illustrate what the interest rate means for your repayments, and work on your behalf to find a lender that is right for you, and potentially reduce the amount of interest you’re paying. Please contact us to arrange a meeting.
Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.
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