Welcome to our latest update of the investment market. We take a quick look at some of the key factors that influenced the stock market in September and could continue to do so over the coming months.

In September, escalating trade tensions have continued to have an impact on the global economy. It’s led to the OECD cutting its global forecast for 2019. The forecast has been cut from 3.2% to 2.9%, which would make 2019 the weakest annual performance since the recession a decade ago. The negative outlook is expected to continue into 2020, with the OECD cutting the forecast from 3.4% to 3%.

UK

The good news is that concerns of the UK slipping into a recession have eased. The economy posted its strongest monthly growth since January at 0.3%.

However, Britain’s manufacturers recorded the sharpest drop in factory output in seven years, according to the latest PMI. Worryingly, it also suggested that supply chains are rerouting away from the UK.

When it comes to company focused news, it’s Thomas Cook that dominated headlines in September. The 178-year-old tour operator collapsed into liquidation, with around 9,000 UK staff facing redundancy. It also left thousands of holidaymakers stranded abroad and many more potentially missing out on holidays they’d booked in advance. The firm struggled with significant debts and rescue talks failed to produce a solution.

It’s not just Thomas Cook that’s been struggling either:

• Next shares fell after it warned an unseasonably warm September will affect trading. The firm also states prices will go down in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but this is not its preferred outcome.
• The UK’s biggest car dealer, Pendragon, also announced it will close 22 of its 35 sores, with 300 job losses. Its auditors blamed Brexit.

As highlighted above, Brexit remains a key issue. The deadline day of 31^st October is now looming and whether the UK will leave without a deal, or leave the EU at all, is still in question.

The big news in September was the ruling on the proroguing of parliament. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five weeks in order to avoid Brexit scrutiny earned criticism, including that it was unlawful. The UK Supreme Court upheld this view in September, with MPs then returning to work. The outcome means a no-deal Brexit is less likely, but it’s still not off the table. 

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also commented on Brexit. He revealed that 75% of companies think they’re as ready as they can be for Brexit. The bank has also scaled back its forecasts for worse case Brexit but continued to warn that a disorderly Brexit is likely to be a big shock.

Of course, the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit continues to have an effect. However, many businesses are taking steps to prepare. Shares in JD Sports jumped after it opened a warehouse in Belgium, whilst BMW revealed it will close its Oxford factory for two days as part of the firm’s preparations.

Europe

Looking out to Europe, manufacturing statistics continue to be negative too. There was a stark slump in Germany, often seen as the stalwart of the bloc. But there was also falling output in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Austria. This, along with many other factors, played a role in the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to back easing again.

The ECB cut its deposit rate and announced plans to restart its asset purchase program. The move comes just a year after the central bank stopped its quantitative easing program and suggested it would begin increasing interest rates again.

US

After months of President Donald Trump urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in a bid to boost lending and the economy, the Fed reacted with a 0.25% cut. However, Trump still isn’t satisfied with the action taken, stating it doesn’t go far enough. He went as far to say in a tweet that the Fed had ‘no guts, no sense, no vision’.

Figures from the Institute of Supply Management reported US manufacturing shrank in August, joining a wider global slowdown. National factory activity decreased to 49.1, where a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy. The slowdown has been linked to the ongoing trade war with China.

Asia

Despite the overall gloomy economic outlook, Asia does have some bright spots.

Protests in Hong Kong have had a significant impact on China over the last few months. The extradition law that sparked the mass protests has now been canned, leading to Hong Kong shares rising more than 4% early on in the month.

Another ongoing issue affecting China has been the trade war with the US. Whilst nothing has yet been agreed, comments from China’s commerce ministry stated that talks have gone ‘very well’ and indicated progress was being made ahead of October’s visit to the US. Shortly after the comments were made, Trump announced he’s delaying a planned tariff hike on $250 billion Chinese goods for two weeks as a ‘gesture of goodwill’. For those affected by the trade war, it could signal that a solution can be found.

It’s not all good news in Asia though. Inflation in South Korea hit zero for the first time ever. It indicates weakening global demand and tensions, with investors deterred.

Middle East

The big news in the Middle East in September was the Saudi oil attack. It was suggested that the attack could disrupt the global supply of crude oil in the short and medium term. Brent crude ended the day up 14.6%, the biggest move since the Brent crude contract was created in the 80s. However, oil prices normalised faster than first anticipated once the full extent of the damage had been assessed.

The attack did highlight the influence of global supply chains. Cruise operator Carnival, for example, dropped 3% in trading as it was expected outgoings would rise whilst demand would fall as households faced greater financial pressure.

Keep an eye on our blog for more investment updates.

If you have any concerns about your investment portfolio in light of recent events, please get in touch.

Please note: The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  

Figures suggest retirees are shunning downsizing. Moving to a cheaper home used to be a common way to unlock wealth tied up in property to fund retirement. However, a new trend means that over 55s are more likely to plan to remain in their current home.

According to research from Nationwide:

• Only a third (36%) of over 55-year olds plan to move to a small home
• One in five say if they move, they’d want the property to be the same size or larger
• 43% say they never plan to move again

Even among those that do plan to retire, it isn’t a decision that’s without conflict. Whilst 56% recognised a smaller home may be easier for them to manage in old age, 73% said they would stay in their current home if they could.

Jason Hurwood, Nationwide’s Director of Home Propositions, said: “The perception that all older people want to downsize to much smaller properties is outdated and cliched. As the research shows, people aged 55 and above are putting off the traditional downsizing house move, with space being very much in demand for a range of reasons – from entertaining friends and family to allowing them to keep and store valuable keepsakes and belongings.”

If you’ve decided you don’t want to move out of your home in the future, it could be for a variety of reasons.

The location of your home

According to the poll, this was one of the most popular reasons for deciding to stay put. In fact, 43% said location was the reason they wanted to keep their current property. In addition, 18% said that being close to family was important to them. When you’re moving home, you not only have to think about the property but how the location suits your lifestyle and needs. This may be the proximity to amenities, good transport links and having family and friends close by. If your current home ticks all the boxes, moving can seem like an unfavourable step.

You need the space of your current property

Whilst moving to a smaller  property may have some benefits, it may not be suited to your lifestyle. Almost half (49%) said their reasons for staying put was that a smaller home wouldn’t be suitable. This was also emphasised by other responses:

• 22% said they wanted room to host family
• 18% didn’t want to get rid of possessions they’d accumulated
• 10% use additional space to enjoy their hobbies

As young people are finding it difficult to step onto the property ladder, more are choosing to live with family whilst saving a deposit. As a result, it’s reasonable to expect that some over 55s will still have children or grandchildren living with them too. Therefore, a family home might be essential well into retirement.

Property adapted to suit your style and needs

You probably have specific tastes when it comes to your home. Whilst you could unlock money by moving to a smaller home, how much would you need to spend to make it suit you? If you’ve invested significant amounts into your current home, it’s easy to see why you might be reluctant to leave it behind. It’s not just the money either, even small renovating projects can take up a lot of your time.

The cost of moving home

On top of these reasons is the cost of moving home. From conveyancing fees to the money paid out to estate agents, the figures can mount up. Assuming your home is sold for more than £125,000, you’ll also need to factor in Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT). The SDLT rate is based on the value of the property but it could mean losing thousands of pounds you’d hoped to release through downsizing.

5 things to consider if you don’t want to downsize

When you think about your future, are you still living in the same property? If have no plans to retire, there are some areas to consider, among them:

1. Do you have enough retirement income without accessing property wealth?
2. Are alternatives for accessing property wealth, such as Equity Release, suitable for you?
3. Does your current property need to be adapted to suit changing needs?
4. Can you afford the costs associated with maintaining the property with your retirement income?
5. How will you pass the property on to loved ones and will your estate be liable to Inheritance Tax?

If you’re thinking about how decisions relating to property will affect your lifestyle, please get in touch. Whether you hope to release capital by downsizing or want to remain in your home, we’ll help you get to grips with your financial situation.

Banks scams are on the rise and becoming more sophisticated. Every year, thousands of people are duped into authorising payments to fraudsters that they may not be able to receive compensation for. Understanding how criminals operate could help protect your money.

According to figures from Finance UK, more than £616 million was stolen by criminals using a variety of methods in the first half of 2019 alone. Authorised push payments (APP), where customers are tricked into authorising a payment to an account controlled by a criminal, accounted for £208 million. It’s a crime that’s rising due to data breaches that compromise personal data, allowing fraudsters to gain the trust of their victims.

Other types of fraud reported include unauthorised card used, remote banking, cheque fraud and sophisticated digital skimming, where card data is stolen.

The good news is that the finance industry is often preventing fraud from taking place. During the first half of 2019, it stopped £820 million of unauthorised payments; the equivalent to £2 in every £3 of attempted fraud being stopped. This accounts for £4.5 million each day. However, that’s of little consolation if you’re among those that have lost your savings. Remaining vigilant against fraud is critical for protecting your money.

Katy Worobec, Managing Director of Economic Crime at UK Finance, said: “A new voluntary code was introduced in May that has significantly improved consumer protections from authorised push payment fraud, with signatory firms committed to reimbursing victims providing they have met certain standards.

“However, criminals are continuing to exploit vulnerabilities outside the financial sector to obtain customers’ data that is then used to commit fraud.”

What is APP and when can you receive compensation?

The first step to reducing the risk of being affected by APP is to understand what it is.

It usually starts with fraudsters gaining access to your personal information. This may be through hacking into an email account or purchasing stolen data. With this information, they’ll attempt to present themselves as a company you recognise, such as your bank or an online business you purchase from.

The fraudster will ask victims to transfer money into an account. Whilst this would normally set alarm bells ringing, they often carefully pick their time, so it doesn’t appear out of the blue. For example, you may have organised some building work on your property through email communication. If fraudsters are able to see this, they’ll contact you at a time you’d be expecting to receive an invoice. As payments are often now made in real-time, criminals are able to quickly transfer money, making it difficult to track.

In the past, it has been incredibly difficult for victims of APP fraud to recover their money. However, a voluntary code now offers some protection. The Contingent Reimbursement Model Code launched in May. So far, eight payment service providers have adopted the code, including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and RBS.

Banking with a provider that has signed the code doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get your money bank. They can still choose not to reimburse you in some circumstances. For example, if it’s deemed you made a payment without a ‘reasonable basis’ for believing you were paying for genuine goods and services or if you ignore warnings when updating payee information.

7 ways to reduce the risk of APP

Even with the finance industry stopping two-thirds of fraudulent activity, APP could still leave you financially struggling if you’re affected. Keeping these seven reminders in mind when you’re approached to make a payment can reduce the risk of fraudsters catching you out.

1. Don’t give out any personal details to unverified people
2. Use a strong password for accounts with personal details, such as your email address or online shopping accounts
3. Remember a genuine bank or organisation will never contact you out of the blue to ask for your PIN or password in full
4. Don’t click on links within emails or texts if you’re unsure of the origin
5. Be cautious of unsolicited contact; genuine firms will understand if you have security concerns
6. If in doubt, hang up the phone and try to contact the individual or company directly using a known email address or phone number
7. Don’t be rushed into making a payment if you feel unsure about the communication, take the time to verify the payment

If you believe you’ve been a victim of APP, the first step should be to contact your bank or building society. They may be able to halt the payment and freeze your account to prevent more losses. You can also report the problem to Action Fraud.

The amount of assets that are invested whilst considering the impact it will have has increased. More investors than ever before are taking ESG (environmental, social and governance) factors into consideration to align their portfolio with their values. But what investment strategies are there that allow you to reflect this?

The 5^th – 11^th October marked Good Money Week, an awareness week that aims to showcase the sustainable and ethical options when it comes to banking, pension, savings and investments. If ethical investing is something you’ve been thinking about and you want to incorporate your values into financial decisions, now could be the perfect time to do so.

Choosing investments for reasons other than financial gain has been a trend that’s gradually gaining traction. Of course, this doesn’t mean that you disregard returns, it’s about taking multiple factors into account. As a result, ethical investing is sometimes referred to as having a ‘double bottom line’; the return it delivers to you and the positive benefit.

According to research:

• Just three in ten men with investments only care if they make money, this figure drops to 15% for women
• However, there is a lack of awareness, just 69% said they had no idea they can request investments that have a ‘positive social impact’

So, if you do want to invest with ethics in mind, what are your options? There are three key strategies to be aware of:

1. Negative screening

When people talk about ethical investing, this is often the first strategy that springs to mind. It involves divesting and avoiding investing in companies that don’t align with your values.

For example, if you’re seeking to ensure your portfolio has a positive impact on climate change efforts, you may decide to no longer want to invest in companies with activities in fossil fuels. Alternatively, if human rights are a key concern, you may decide to avoid retailers that have exploitative practices within their supply chain.

When you see ‘ethical funds’ this is usually the top strategy they’ll use, although the criteria can vary significantly between funds. One of the issues with this strategy is that large, multinational companies will often derive profits from multiple industries, particularly when you consider subsidiaries. As a result, funds will often allocate some leeway, for instance, avoiding companies that derive more than 5% of their profits for certain activities.

In terms of your investment and returns, negative screening will potentially mean cutting out entire industries. As always, it’s important to keep in mind how balanced your portfolio is and how it aligns with your financial goals.

2. Positive screening

In contrast to the above, you don’t avoid investing in certain companies when using a positive screening strategy, but actively seek to invest in certain firms. It means investing in businesses that are championing the values you have.

Going back to the climate change example, with a positive screening strategy, it may mean investing in companies that are operating in renewables or researching new technologies that could help. Often, investors will allocate a portion of their investment portfolio to supporting their values.

This has both pros and cons. One advantage is that it means you don’t miss out on potential investment opportunities, as you may with a negative screening process. On the other hand, it may mean investing in companies that don’t align with your values.

3. Engagement

Finally, an engagement strategy is about using shareholder power to encourage change within a company. Due to needing significant shareholder power to influence, this strategy is more commonly used by institutional investors, such as pension funds. However, that doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant to you. It’s still possible to engage with your pension provider, for example, to encourage them to use their influence.

Which strategy is right for you?

It’s important to keep in mind that there’s no right or wrong answer here.

You may have a preference about which strategy you’d prefer, or maybe you want to blend them. However, it’s just as important to look at your wider financial circumstances and how investment decisions will affect your goals. This is an area we can help with. Looking at your existing assets and how these can be adapted to reflect ethical views, can lead to a portfolio that supports both your ethics and aspirations.

Setting out your values

If you’re beginning to consider incorporating ethical investing in some way, the first step is to consider your values. What’s important to you?

One of the challenges with ethical investing is that it’s a highly subjective area. What you may consider unethical, may be acceptable to others. This can make it difficult to find funds that align with your views. Setting out what your priorities are can give you a starting point. According to research from Triodos Bank, the top five industries investors would want to avoid are:

• Manufacturing or selling of arms and weapons (38%)
• Worker/supply chain exploitation (37%)
• Environmental negligence (36%)
• Tobacco (30%)
• Gambling (29%)

Do you agree with these? Before investing your money through an ethical fund, take some time to look at the criteria. There may be instances where you need to compromise, so you should also think about how comfortable you’ll be with this.

If you’d like to discuss your current investment portfolio, please get in touch. We’ll help you understand how it’s currently invested and potential changes that could be made, reflecting your views and financial position.

Please note: The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Einstein once reportedly referred to compound interest as the ‘eighth wonder of the world’, stating: “He who understands it, earns it, he who doesn’t, pays it”. So, just what is compound interest and when do you benefit from it?

Whilst financial jargon can often seem complex, compound interest is actually simple and easy to take advantage of. The term refers to the principle that when you save money you can earn interest on not only your initial contributions but on the interest itself. So, if you leave your money in a savings account for an extended period of time, the amount of interest earned can grow significantly. As a result, the rate that your savings grow gets faster.

Let’s say you deposit £1,000 into a savings account that pays 10% interest a year. In that first year, you’d earn £100 in interest. However, if you leave both your initial saving and interest, the following year, you’d receive £110 in interest. The more frequently interest payments are made, the greater the effects of compounding.

The same principle can be beneficial when you’re investing too. Investing returns delivered means they can go on to potentially deliver returns themselves.

Why is compounding so important?

Compounding means that even if you don’t add to savings and investments, they can continue to grow. Over a long period of time, this can lead to a substantial financial boost as interest or returns accumulate. This can be highlighted by looking at how pension contributions accumulate over different time periods.

Past research has demonstrated how saving into a pension for 10 years at the beginning of your working life could result in a bigger pot than saving for four decades. The study assumed annual pension contributions of £2,500 and investment growth of 7% a year:

• Someone that starts saving at the age of 21 and then stops at 30 would have a pension fund worth ��553,000 by the age of 70 if no further contributions were made and gains were reinvested. This is after contributions of £25,000 grow by a factor of 22 over the long term.
• In contrast, someone saving from 30 until retiring at 70 would have a pension of £534,000. By saving later in life, under this scenario, people contribute £100,000 to their pension but it grows by a little more than fivefold.

Another way to visualise the effects of compound interest is to think about how long it would take to double your money if savings were benefitting from 10% interest. If you answer quickly, your response might be ‘ten years’. But with compound interest having an effect, it takes just seven years.

When does compound interest matter to you?

As compound interest has the greatest effect over the long term, the impacts will be most felt on the financial areas where you’re looking to the future. This may include:

• Long-term saving accounts
• Pensions
• Investment portfolios
• Savings for children or grandchildren

It can be difficult to calculate the full impact of compound interest, particularly when investing, but there are calculators available online. Simply knowing that leaving interest and returns untouched can boost your savings can help you take advantage of compounding.

Understanding compound interest can help you get the most out of savings. For a comprehensive financial review, please get in touch with us.

Please note: The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation, which are subject to change in the future.