According to voucher company, RetailMeNot, UK households usually spend an average of £473.83 on presents each Christmas.

If you have a younger child or grandchild in your home, then finding the perfect gift can be challenging, as the ‘must-have’ toys and games change every year.

To help you, here’s a comprehensive list of the top 12 toys to buy your children and grandchildren this Christmas.

Ages 0 – 5

Buying for very small children can be tricky. However, suitable for children aged 12 months and over, this charming Puppet Company Hideaway Puppets Tree House provides hours of interactive play.

The set features six puppets peeping out of a plush tree trunk, and with a little door at the foot of the trunk, it’s the perfect house for these characters. The set includes six finger puppets including a hedgehog, an owl, a badger and a squirrel.

Buy at Amazon

Designed for children aged 3 and over, Tonie’s Toniebox is a Wi-Fi speaker unlike any you will have seen before. As well as being soft to the touch, this clever piece of tech is paired with a hand-painted collectable Tonie figure, which is pre-recorded with songs and popular stories like The Gruffalo.

The speaker is padded, robust and water repellent, sewn out of sustainable material and has no sharp edges. It starts when a Tonie character is placed on top, while pressing the ears changes the volume and tapping the sides of the speaker changes the song.

And, once a bedtime story has finished, the Toniebox will automatically turn itself off and go to sleep as well. 

Buy at Tonies

Ages 5 – 8

Interactive toys are ideal for kids of this age, and Juno, My Baby Elephant is one of the most popular.

This adorable baby elephant is highly realistic and features more than 100 movements and sounds. As well as a playful, moving trunk that responds to touch, Juno can kiss, pick things up and play games such as Peekaboo and Build-a-Tune.

Juno also uses its trunk to make adorable trumpet noises, eat peanuts, play games, interact with its toy mouse, and more.

Buy at Argos

Drones are hugely popular as gifts and Oaxis – My First Drone is perfect for younger children.

Oaxis can be used indoors without a remote or controller and the battery allows for seven minutes of flight time (for a 40-minute charge).

The child simply throws the drone into the air and can chase it as it flies about. The altitude sensor ensures it won’t fly higher than three metres, and it also features sensors to avoid obstacles and air bounce technology.

Buy at Selfridges

Two more interactive pets that are making a stir this Christmas are Boppi, the Booty Shakin’ Llama and Owleez. Suitable for younger children, Boppi the Booty Shakin’ Llama is a friendly and fun interactive pet that ‘shakes her booty’ and dances to three catchy songs.

Buy at Tesco

Owleezare interactive owl toys that respond to touch and feature more than 100 sounds and movements.

They come with a nest and food accessory and, as well as nurturing their pet, a child can actually teach their owl to fly! When they have practised flying together by swinging Owleez through the air – the toy will let them know and will take off from their nest, just like a real baby bird.

Buy at Argos

Ages 8 – 12

If you’re looking to encourage a child’s creativity, the Osmo Creative Kit is a drawing tool which connects to Apple products and brings a child’s drawings to life.

When a child draws with real pens on the scan pad and camera deflector, their phone or tablet will ‘see’ the drawings and show them on screen. They will also see their hands on the screen as they draw.

A child can trace over pre-made images or turn their photos into line drawings and send a time-lapse video of their drawing to friends and family.

Buy at Amazon

For more than 60 years, LEGO has been a favourite with children of all ages, and this year the construction toy goes digital with the launch of LEGO Hidden Side.

LEGO Hidden Side combines the joy of LEGO building with an Augmented Reality (AR) game and comes in eight different sets (ranging in price from £16.99 to £109.99). Your child builds a multi-layered LEGO model, and then uses a free interactive AR app to hunt and trap ghosts.

With LEGO promising regular updates, kids can build and play with the physical set, then watch it come to life as they interact and view through the AR app.

Buy at LEGO

For more than 30 years families have been brought together by the charades-inspired drawing game, Pictionary. Now, in its latest incarnation Pictionary Air, the classic game has been given a tech-based upgrade.

Once you have downloaded the app, you use the Pictionary Air pen to draw in the air. Your sketches magically appear on your smart device when you point the in-app camera at the illustrator.

This update lets you interact with your drawing to help your team guess what you have sketched, and you can even record and play back your attempts so you can share your most creative performances.

Buy at Smyths

If your child or grandchild is a fan of Harry Potter, or simply interested in computers and coding, the Harry Potter Kano Coding Kit lets them build a wireless Harry Potter wand and perform wizarding spells alongside an app.

The set allows youngsters to learn to code, and there are more than 70 creative challenges to enjoy. Once the wand has been put together and coded, waving the wand results in instant effects on the screen of a tablet or laptop, and children can make feathers fly, pumpkins grow or goblets multiply!

There are loads of challenges on the app to keep children entertained, and it’s a great way to teach a young person about coding while also having fun.

Buy at Amazon

Ages 12+

Nothing beats an old-fashioned family card game, and one of the best around is Exploding Kittens. Described as ‘a card game for people who are into kittens and explosions and laser beams and sometimes goats’, this is a highly addictive, strategic and fun game which is easy to learn and can keep the family entertained for hours.

Unlike other card games, with Exploding Kittens, you draw a card from the pile at the end of your turn. If you draw an Exploding Kitten, that’s you out of the game – unless you can defuse it. So, the aim of the game is to minimise your chances of drawing the deadly feline from the pile.

Buy at Waterstones

Pretty much every teenager now owns a smartphone, and the clever Smartphone Projector transforms any space into a home cinema. With an 8x magnifying lens, they simply pop the smartphone in, plug in their home speakers and create a big-screen experience.

The projector is easy to build, works with most smartphones, and allows anyone to watch videos and TV on a ‘big’ screen, without the pain of wires.

Buy at Prezzybox

We all like to think that we could spot a scam. But scammers are often sophisticated and it’s easier than you think to fall for their claims. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has recently highlighted some of the most common tactics fraudsters use to try and get their hands on your pension with a quiz.

Falling victim to pension scammers can be devastating. Often it will mean losing a lifetime of savings and the financial security you’ve been working towards over your career. According to the FCA, the average victim will lose £82,000 as part of a pension scam, a sum that takes 22 years to save up. Whilst there is a chance that your savings will be recovered this often isn’t the case. Being targeted by a scammer could mean your retirement plans are left in tatters.

Could you spot a pension scam?

Despite 63% of pension savers confident in their ability to spot a scam and protect their savings, a survey reveals that some are overconfident. The same portion would trust someone offering pension advice out of the blue, one of the red flags of a scam. What’s more, a fifth of people would be keen to take up an offer of accessing their pension, another clear sign of scammers.

Psychologist Honey Langcaster-James said, “Scammers employ clever techniques such as seeking to establish ‘social similarity’ by faking empathy and a friendly rapport with their victims. That can win your trust in a short space of time and by engaging with them you leave yourself vulnerable to losing a lot of money very quickly. People need to know how to spot the signs of a scam so they don’t fall for psychological tricks.”

Take the FCA quiz and find out how savvy you are at spotting pension scams.

7 pension scam red flags

1. Unsolicited contact

Being contacted out of the blue is one of the key warning signs of a scam. In early 2019, a pension cold calling ban was implemented. This means that reputable firms won’t contact you if you haven’t requested it or been in touch with them first. If any form of contact is unexpected, including text messages or emails, it’s best to ignore there. If you want to learn more about the offer, check the FCA register and contact the firm directly with the details listed.

2. An offer of a free pension review

Reviewing your pension seems like a sensible thing to do. Whether you want to review investments or understand the income it will generate at retirement, it can be tempting to seek professional help. However, ‘free pension review’ is a term that fraudsters often use. Ask yourself why valuable financial advice is free and be sure to check the credentials of any firm before handing over personal or sensitive information.

3. Claims of unlocking your pension early

Being able to access your pension early may sound appealing. But, unfortunately, it’s a sign of a scam. Most pensions become accessible from the age of 55 and to do so before will result in hefty penalties. Unlocking your pension early is only penalty-free in exceptional circumstances, such as following a terminal diagnosis. In these cases, you should contact your pension provider directly or speak to a trusted financial adviser that you’ve worked with in the past.

4. Pressured sales tactics

Scammers want to get their hands on your money as quickly as possible, leaving you little time to think through your decision. For this reason, they deploy high-pressure sales tactics. This may be offering time-limited offers or pressuring you into making a snap decision, such as saying a courier is bringing the paperwork to you immediately. Pension decisions can affect your security for the rest of your life. Don’t be pushed into making quick decisions and give yourself time to consider the implications.

5. Claims of low risk, high return investments

We all want our investments to deliver high returns with little risk of losing our capital. Sadly, this isn’t possible. All investments carry some level of risk and the higher the potential returns the greater this is. Claiming unrealistic returns or that your money will be ‘safe’ is a sure-fire way to spot a scam. Ask yourself why more people aren’t investing in these opportunities if they can guarantee high returns.

6. Unusual investments

Investing can be complex and if you’ve not taken control of investment decisions in the past, you may be unaware of how your pension has been invested. However, unusual or complex investments can be used to dupe pension holders. This may include overseas property or forestry firms. Before making investment decisions, it’s important you understand where your money will be going. Doing some research can help protect your savings.

7. Brush off your questions and concerns

Criminals will attempt to minimise or dismiss any concerns you might have about proceeding. If someone is failing to give you answers to questions, take a step back. A genuine pension adviser will understand that retirement decisions are important. They’ll want you to feel confident in the decisions you’re making and be happy to answer questions you have. They’ll also allow you to take a step back and think about further questions you may have before proceeding. In contrast, a scammer will aim to get you to make a quick decision without the space to think it through properly.

If you’re worried that pension scammers have targeted you, the first thing to do is contact your pension provider. They may be able to block withdrawals if they haven’t already been completed. You should also report the scam to the FCA through the Scam Smart website, as well as alerting Action Fraud.

When it changes, the Bank of England base rate is something that’s featured heavily in the news. But why is it important and when does it matter to you?

The base rate is the interest rate that the Bank of England sets, in turn, it affects the interest rates that banks, building societies and other financial services offer. The base rate changes depending on economic conditions and influences the way consumers behave:

• Low interest rates mean that borrowing is more affordable, encouraging consumers to spend more. When interest rates are low we’re more likely to consider buying a car using finance or take out a larger mortgage
• In contrast, high interest rates mean you’ll earn more on savings and pay more when borrowing. As a result, it encourages people to save rather than spend

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee sets the base rate, with members voting to leave base rates as they are or change them.

How has the base rate changed over time?

In recent times, we’ve become used to low-interest rates but this hasn’t always been the case.

The current Bank of England base rate is 0.75%. It’s been low for over a decade, following the 2008 financial crisis. In April 2008 the base rate was 5%. However, this was slashed several times over the course of a year in an effort to improve the economy and encourage consumers to spend and support businesses. In August 2016, it was cut even further, to 0.25%, taking it to a historic low. Over the last two years, it has increased but at a very slow pace.

Whilst we’ve experienced low interest rates for over a decade, this isn’t the historic norm.

During the late 80s, the base rate was far higher. In fact, the interest rate reached 15% in 1989. There are many factors that led to this decision but one of the key reasons was that it was seen as a way to reduce inflation.

The current interest rate and that of the late 80s are extremes. Looking at the historical average, interest rates have usually fallen between 4% and 6%.

But how will the Bank of England base rate change in the future? It’s impossible to say with certainty, but economic turbulence caused by ongoing Brexit uncertainty could mean that interest rates will fall even further; good news for borrowers but bad news for savers.

At the last monetary policy committee meeting in November, the base rate was held. However, it was the first time since June 2018 that this wasn’t a unanimous decision. It could signal that the base rate will be cut further if the UK leaves the EU in bid to support the economy.

The impact on your finances

The base rate set by the Bank of England affects the interest rate commercial banks will lend money. It’s used as a benchmark when lending to businesses and individuals.

Saving

You’ve no doubt noticed that savings have been benefitting from poorer interest rates over the last decade. If, since the financial crisis, you’ve been a saver rather than a borrower, you’re probably worse off.

For much of the last decade cash savings are likely to have grown by only small amounts. In fact, once you factor in inflation, your savings have probably declined in real terms. This means the spending power of your savings has been reduced.

In the past, cash savings may have offered you a way to grow your wealth safely over the long term. But lower interest rates may now mean it’s more appropriate to invest in order to outpace inflation.

Borrowing

In contrast, borrowers have benefitted from the low interest environment. It’s cheaper than ever before to borrow money. The interest rates for credit cards, loans and other forms of borrowing are competitive.

One of the areas you may have noticed this in is your mortgage. Our mortgage is often the largest loan we’ll ever take out and interest payments can be significant. If you had a tracker mortgage, which tracks the Bank of England base rate, at the time of the financial crisis, you’ll have noticed minimum payments fell.

Lower interest rates make borrowing more affordable. They also present the opportunity to overpay and reduce debt quicker, whilst paying less interest.

The Bank of England base rate may affect the best way to use your money. At some points, it’s wise to quickly pay off debt but in others, it can be more prudent to save or invest your capital. If you’d like to discuss how to get the most out of your wealth in the current low interest environment, please contact us.

We all know the challenges of trying to find a Christmas present for someone who already has everything. When it comes to children or grandchildren who are going to get piles of presents under the tree this year, you may not know what to get. Thinking long term and setting some money aside for after the festive period has passed could be the perfect Christmas gift.

The average amount that parents spend per child at Christmas is £137.50. With other relatives and loved ones adding to this sum, children in your family could get quite the stack of gifts to unwrap. Whilst the excitement of new toys is part of Christmas for children, deferring gifts could have a far greater impact and boost their financial future.

Becky O’Connor, Personal Finance Specialist at Royal London, said: “It might seem Scrooge-like to save for rather than spend on your children, but putting money into long-term savings is truly far more generous than things that come in gift wrap over time.

“Even if your children don’t realise it now, they’ll appreciate these ‘future presents’ when they reach adulthood; for driving lessons, help towards university maintenance costs, or homeownership dreams.”

Still in need of some persuasion that deferred gifts could be the right option? Here are four reasons to consider them:

1. They have everything they need

Whilst children might want the latest toy or gadget, the fact is that usually, they have everything they need already. If you’re struggling to think of gifts they’ll still love to play with, in a few months’ time, looking further ahead could be the answer. Even if you decide to forgo presents or offer a token gift instead, they’ll probably still have gifts to open from other loved ones, so they won’t miss out on the excitement of Santa. 

2. Give them a helping hand in the future

A look through the newspaper headlines and you’ll probably spot a story about how younger generations are struggling financially. Whether it’s low wage growth, student loans or housing deposits, taking steps to put money aside now can make things easier in the future. Remember, if you’re saving money in their name, they will usually be able to access it from the age of 18. As a result, it’s important to let them know what the money is intended for as they get older. Alternatively, you could save in your own name, ready for when it’s needed.

3. Make your gift go further

A £50 gift doesn’t typically go that far when you look at what it will buy and how long it will last. But keep adding those sums together, along with the benefit of interest or investment returns, and it can add up over the long term. When you look at the bigger picture, deferring gifts can mean your money has an even greater impact.

4. Teach them a valuable financial lesson

We’re often told to save for the future. Saving a little bit from this year’s Christmas budget for your child or grandchild’s future is a great opportunity to teach them an important financial lesson. Whether you tell them about the savings now or wait until they’re a little older, it can help reinforce the idea of saving for a rainy day.

Giving a deferred gift for Christmas

So, if you’re looking for an alternative to the usual colourful toys and treats that can be found under a tree, what are your options? Here are three to consider:

• Savings account: If you saved the equivalent spent on Christmas presents each year by parents (£137.50) a child could reach their 18^th birthday with a useful nest egg of £2,824, assuming an interest rate of 1.45%. It’s a sum that could provide the support needed to pass their driving test or lend a helping hand as they prepare to study at university. Alternatively, you could decide to spread out contributions. Deposit just £25 a month and they’ll have £5,400 when they reach adulthood.
• Premium bonds: Premium bonds can be a fun way to set money aside for children. The minimum amount available is £25 and anyone can purchase premium bonds on behalf of a child. Every month, two bondholders will win £1 million, with smaller prizes on offer. On average, premium bonds win the equivalent of 1.4%. However, many savers will receive less than this or nothing at all.
• Investing: Using a savings account can seem like a safe option, as contributions won’t be affected by market volatility. But it could mean that your money isn’t working as hard as it could be. If you’re saving for more than five years, investing is an option worth considering. £25 a month could grow into £12,002 over 18 years, assuming average returns of 8% per annum. Use a Junior ISA (JISA) and savings returns will be tax-free.
• Pension: Thinking even further ahead can help your child with retirement. You can open a pension in a child’s name from when they are born. Pay in £25 a month from birth to adulthood, and the child could have a pension worth £147,798 when they reach 60, assuming growth of 8%. It can make the transition into adulthood easier, knowing they have some savings ready for later life.

If you’d like to understand which option best suits your goals, please get in touch. We’re here to help you make the most of your finances, including passing them on to loved ones to support their future too.

Please note: The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate NS&I products.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation which are subject to change in the future.

With the election less than two weeks away we turn to scenario planning for the market impact of the potential outcomes from the vote. While a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome at this stage, we know, to paraphrase Harold Wilson, that one week is a long time in politics, let alone two.

We have reviewed opinion poll data, betting markets and calculations on the likely outcome in terms of seats in Parliament from sites such as this electoralcalculus.co.uk

Our conclusions are that while Boris Johnson is currently looking likely to still be Prime Minister on December 13^th, and is odds-on to have a Parliamentary majority, probability weighting the outcomes seems to explain why UK equities, gilts and sterling are trending sideways so far during the campaign. That looks rational.

There are also rational reasons to think Labour’s poll ratings could rise from here as we detail below. In our view market volatility will likely return when we know the election result.

1. Most likely outcome

Let’s jump straight to our conclusion which is summarised in this table:

The probability of Boris Johnson being Prime Minister is 75%. But clearly the market impact of a majority Conservative government is likely to be different to that of a minority Conservative government.

Jeremy Corbyn has a 25% probability of being Prime Minister but a de minimis chance of having a working majority. Again, the market impact of each scenario that puts the Labour leader in 10 Downing Street is rather different.

2. Market impact of each outcome and why markets have been directionless so far in the campaign

Here we have looked at market moves in recent months and in 2017 to give our best guess on the reaction to each outcome in the first month after the election. This is very much an art, not a science. But we hope this at least gives a sense of the likely direction of travel in the days immediately after the election.

Whatever your own political views, we think it reasonable to say that the best outcome for markets will be a Conservative majority while the worst would be a Labour majority.

We have not suggested that a Conservative majority will lead to a roaring bull market because in our view there remain a lot of challenges to overcome that will keep an “uncertainty discount” on UK assets, but a much reduced one from that which has afflicted the country for much of the last three and half years.

If we put our probabilities together with our asset class effect assumptions we can produce the below Probability Weighted Asset Class Effect.

This table could give us a reason why markets have been so calm and non-directional in the campaign so far. If the above is right then the election will have some effect when we know the result but before then it does not make much sense to take a big position one way or the other.

That is reflected in the data on positioning in the currency markets, much the most liquid way to trade a view on UK macro risk. As the chart below shows, investors have reduced sterling short positions since they peaked in early August but since the start of the election campaign positioning has been stable at a smaller net-short than in August. That seems entirely rational given the analysis above.

3. Opinion Polling data so far and how things could change in coming days

The Conservative vote has reached levels not seen since 2017 in current polls (green line above). It is possible that we are at “peak Tory” share of the vote so the more interesting question is will the Labour vote (black line) continue its own ascent?

One way of thinking about this is to track the vote share of the two major parties. One of the remarkable things in a year when on several days we seemed to see six impossible things before breakfast, was the collapse in the support for each of the major parties earlier this year. This coincides with the failure to leave the European Union on March 29^th which those of you with long memories will remember was the first irrevocable deadline for us to miss.

As the chart below shows, the share of the two parties is now back to 75%. Having begun to recover over the summer, it has continued to recover in the campaign.

To digress for a moment, one by-product of this is that in a first-past-the-post electoral system, modelling the translation of vote share into seats won is much easier when there are two dominant parties. At the beginning of the campaign, when the two major parties were at a combined 59%, we were rather suspicious of such models. Today we think we can have more confidence in them. Most continue to suggest a Conservative majority.

For example, the widely anticipated, because it was the most accurate in 2017, YouGov MRP survey was released on 27^th November. It is a detailed constituency by constituency survey involving interviewing 10,000 respondents and then regressing the data. It shows a Conservative majority of 68 seats.

So far the rise of the two main parties has been due to the squeeze on the Brexit party by the Conservatives and the squeeze on the Liberal Democrats from Labour. As discussed above, the Conservatives have probably squeezed the Brexit Party as far as they can so the question is whether Labour can continue to increase its share at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. If Labour can, then the race could narrow.

One way this could happen is if the issues dominating the campaign shift. We said in our October 30^th report that we thought the Conservatives would win the election if the campaign was dominated by Brexit. So far that has been the case.

YouGov’s latest polling says that “Britain leaving the European Union” remains the single most important issue in the campaign with 66% of voters including it in the three issues they think are the most important. It has remained the most important issue since the 2016 referendum when this question has been asked by YouGov.

The Conservative Party have become the party of Brexit and as long as it is the most important issue that is good for the chances of a Conservative majority.

Brexit is one “Tory issue” but there are others. Traditionally the issues that the Conservatives tend to poll well, in the sense of being trusted by the electorate to do a good job on, include things like crime and the economy. It has also been the case in recent years that immigration has become more important and those for whom it is are more likely to be Tory voters (if not UKIP or Brexit).

For Labour, the issues that it tends to poll well on are health care, education, the environment and housing. One of the reasons that many Labour voters were pro-Brexit is that there are plenty of reasons for voters to be genuinely concerned about these issues. When given the chance to express a view in the EU referendum the concern and disillusionment about many of these issues contributed to the Leave vote (as of course did concerns about immigration).

One way to think about whether the issues that are the most important in the campaign are favourable to one party or the other is to take the three most frequently mentioned issues that fit into those “traditional” Tory and Labour blocs. The chart below shows the result.

The chart adds together the % of voters mentioning Brexit, Immigration and the Economy and showing those as the green “Tory issues” line. It adds up to over 100% as voters can mention three issues.

The black line shows the proportion of voters mentioning health, education and the environment as the most important issues.

There is good news for Labour in this chart. The focus on those “Labour issues” has been picking up this year and if that continues it will almost certainly mean that the Labour share of the national vote in opinion polls will continue to rise. Put simply, can Labour keep the focus on the NHS?

4. Betting Markets

Although betting markets, like the polls, were unreliable in 2017 and in the referendum, they still provide information that helps either confirm or question the message from the polls and from markets. So far they are consistent with both.

Below is the view from one betting market, predictit.org. There has been a slight drifting up in the probability of Johnson being PM (although this says nothing about the probability of his having a majority). We are taking a more prudent view than the betting markets on the respective probabilities of each candidate for PM but there is no new material information in this dataflow at the moment.

Conclusion

Market reaction to the election uncertainty has been completely rational in the campaign so far. A probability weighted distribution would suggest that UK markets will drift sideways until the election itself at which point volatility will increase.

At the moment, all the information available points to a Conservative majority. But there is hope for Labour in the way it has squeezed the Liberal Democrat vote and in the way the electorate is reporting what issues it is most concerned about.

We will do another update on our thinking before election day. But for now, we believe there is all to play for.

William Dinning
29^th November 2019

Risk Warnings

The views and opinions expressed are the views of Waverton Investment Management Limited and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.  The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such.  All material(s) have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.  There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.  Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. Simulated performance is no guarantee of future results and the value of such investments and their strategies may fall as well as rise.  Capital security is not guaranteed.

Welcome to our latest update on the investment market. We take a quick look at some of the key factors that influenced the stock market in October and could continue to do so over the coming months.

The global economy continues to have a gloomy outlook. In October, the World Trade Organisation slashed its global forecast to the lowest in a decade. The organisation now predicts growth of 1.2% this year, compared to the 2.6% estimate it gave in April this year. As is still a common theme, the reduced expectations were linked to Brexit uncertainty and ongoing trade wars.

The new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva also used her inaugural speech to warn the global economy is now in a synchronised slowdown urging politicians to act. It points to continued volatility for investors.

UK

Unsurprisingly, in the UK, Brexit continues to be the key topic on everyone’s lips.

For a short time, it looked as though the UK would be leaving the EU on the 31^st October deadline. Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to get his deal through the first stage this month, beating predecessor Theresa May, but that’s as far as it got. We’re now set to have a general election on 12^th December, indicating the Brexit uncertainty is far from over.

Nissan has also waded into the Brexit debate. The Japanese car maker has said it would review its decision to build the Qashqai sport utility vehicle in Sunderland if the UK were to leave the EU.

The UK narrowly avoided recession. Whilst the economy shrunk by 0.1% in August, it’s still up 0.3% over three months. The figures have gone a little way to easing fears that a recession is on the horizon. Overall, statistics paint a gloomy picture:

• Markit data suggests factories are cutting jobs at their fastest pace for six years
• The construction industry is now shrinking at a faster pace, the PMI fell from 45 in August to 43.3 in September, figures below 50 indicate contraction. Jobs in construction also fell at their fastest pace since December 2010
• Retailers in the UK suffered their worst September in at least 24 years, according to the British Retail Consortium. This is coupled with data from Barclaycard finding retail spending on credit cards was also subdued
• Worryingly, the UK’s dominant service sector is now declining along with manufacturing and construction
• The housing market has stalled, with prices falling 0.2% nationally in September, according to figures from Nationwide. London leads the fall with a 1.7% decrease
• One bright spot in the figures was TV and film, which helped boost GDP thanks to several box office productions

Moving on to some company news, an inquiry was launched into the collapse of Thomas Cook. Executives were questioned by MPs about remuneration policy and accounting practices, among other areas, after the travel firm collapsed at the height of the holiday season this summer, leaving thousands stranded.

Another much-loved British brand is facing challenges too. John Lewis Partnership is looking for discounts from landlords amid struggles that meant it made a loss in the first half of the year for the first time. A major shake-up is underway at the company though; one in three senior management HQ jobs will be cut as it merges running John Lewis and Waitrose.

Europe

Europe continues to be affected by both Brexit and the US-China trade war; the manufacturing PMI fell from 47 in August to 45.7 in September, the lowest reading since October 2012.

Germany, often seen as the stalwart of Europe, has also seen a flurry of negative news. Growth forecasts have been slashed to 0.5% for this year and 1.1% in 2020. This compares to previous estimates of 0.8% and 1.8% respectively. Factory orders slumped by 6.7% year-on-year in August and exports fell 3.9%.

Tellingly, a Sentix survey revealed that Eurozone investor morale has hit a six and a half year low. With difficult conditions continuing, it’s a sentiment that may not pick up for some time.

New US tariffs on some EU products also came into effect on the 18^th October. The tariffs of 25% affect a wide range of products from across the continent, including French Wine, Italian Parmesan, Spanish olives and Scottish whisky.

US

Statistics in the US also point towards a slowdown.

Factory output fell at its fastest rate in a decade, falling to 47.8. The news affected stocks on both sides of the Atlantic with prices falling in response.

President Donald Trump celebrated unemployment figures as they fell to 3.5%, the lowest since December 1969. However, this statistic shows just one side of the job market; wage growth fell below expectation indicating that the unemployment figures may be unsustainable.

The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates to the 1.5%-1.75% range as business investment and exports continue to be weak. Despite Trump urging action for months, he still blasted the move, stating the Fed had been too slow to act.

Now on to an area that’s having global consequences; the trade war between the US and China.

Even basketball became implicated in the issue after General Manager of the Houston Rockets expressed support for Hong Kong. China’s state broadcaster, CCTV, then halted plans to air the league’s pre-season games.

Whilst tensions have been rocky between the two countries this month, there could be a deal just around the corner. The US blacklisted 28 Chinese firms, citing human rights violations. The Beijing Foreign Ministry accused Washington of ‘smearing China’ over the crackdown. However, by the end of the month, Trump indicated that he could sign a preliminary trade deal very soon. Meetings will continue into November.

Asia

Of course, the trade war with the US continues to have an effect on China. The country missed its economic growth forecast. GDP grew 6% between July and September. Whilst this is still within its target range, it may be a reminder that the fast-paced growth of China can’t last forever.

Another key issue in Asia is the ongoing protests in Hong Kong. The special administrative region of China has now faced months of protests with tensions continuing to escalate. As a result, it’s not surprising that the country has now fallen into a recession.

Keep an eye on our blog for more investment updates.

If you have any concerns about your investment portfolio in light of recent events, please get in touch.